KTM Twins - Margin x Seasonality Bid Strategy (Aug 2026 refresh)

Product Types Analyzed

Calendar-Grade Categories

38.1%

Rev-Wtd Avg Margin

$106K

Avg Monthly Revenue

Not Calendar-Usable

How This Report Works

1. Margin Calculation

Unchanged from March. 27,230 SKUs matched between ShipHero (cost) and Shopify (price): margin = (price - cost) / price, weighted by sales volume. These figures are from Feb 4, 2026 - no fresh cost export was available for this refresh.

2. Seasonality Indexes

Fully rebuilt on Aug 2024 - Jul 2026, a balanced 24-month window with two observations per calendar month. Index 1.0x = that category's average month. Basis is Google Ads conversions, the same as March.

3. Bid Priority Score

Seasonal index x margin weight. Same normaliser as the March matrix, so scores are directly comparable. >1.40 push hard, >1.10 increase, >0.90 maintain, >0.70 reduce, else minimize.

4. Reliability Guard (new)

Any category averaging under 10 conversions/month is marked INSUFFICIENT DATA and excluded from the quadrants and calendar. Its "seasonality" is order lumpiness, not demand.

Reliability Tiers

How each category should be managed, and why. Only the first tier gets a monthly bid calendar.

Tier	Categories	Share of revenue	Test failed	How to manage
Calendar-grade	10	62.0%	-	Apply the monthly bid calendar below
Volume, unstable curve	4	25.5%	Replication < 0.30	Bid on margin. Hold bids flat year-round
Insufficient data	17	10.5%	Under 10 conv/mo	One catch-all asset group on blended ROAS
Investigate	2	2.0%	Negative margin	Do not spend until cost data is verified

Volume But Unstable - Bid On Margin, Not Calendar

These have enough conversions to trust their totals, but their month-to-month shape did not survive a change of window. Treat them as aseasonal: set a target ROAS from the margin tier and leave bids flat.

Product Type	Margin	Avg Mo Rev	Conv/mo	March index replication
Footwear	57.4%	$10,903	20.4	-0.27
Ergonomics	28.1%	$10,009	45.4	-0.12
Helmets	41.1%	$3,096	11.8	-0.08
Tools	32.2%	$3,039	14.2	+0.25

This tier is 25.5% of revenue - more than the insufficient-data tier - so it is not a rounding error. Ergonomics and Footwear in particular have been getting monthly bid instructions built on curves that do not replicate.

Strategy Quadrant: Margin vs Seasonal Volatility

Each bubble = a product type. Size = 12-month revenue. X = seasonal range (wider = more seasonal). Y = weighted margin. Faded bubbles are the insufficient-data categories - their X position is unreliable by construction.

Cash Cows - Always Push

High margin (40%+) and steady year-round demand. Safest possible ad spend.

None in this quadrant

Stars - Push At Peak

High margin (40%+) with a reliable seasonal pattern. Increase bids into peaks, pull back in troughs.

Exhaust45% margin · $7,681/mo
OEM Microfiche40% margin · $2,658/mo

Opportunistic - Bid At Peak Only

Margins under 40% with a reliable pattern. Concentrate budget at peak; you need the conversion-rate lift to profit.

Protection36% margin · $11,945/mo
Seat33% margin · $10,413/mo
Engine & Maintenance39% margin · $9,821/mo
Body38% margin · $9,002/mo
Bags & Luggage32% margin · $7,643/mo
Apparel37% margin · $2,308/mo
Chain & Sprocket39% margin · $2,241/mo
Electrical34% margin · $1,949/mo

Question Marks - Cautious Maintenance

Workable margins, flat demand. Bid conservatively and hold a higher ROAS target.

None in this quadrant

Insufficient Data - Manage On Blended ROAS

Under 10 conversions/month. The final column is how well their March seasonality curve reproduced on the refreshed window - near zero or negative means the "season" was never there.

Product Type	Margin	Avg Mo Rev	Conv/mo	March index replication
Wheels	28.9%	$2,350	8.3	-0.11
Brakes	34.6%	$1,488	5.7	+0.08
Suspension	31.2%	$1,458	5.0	-0.07
Lighting	27.6%	$1,340	7.2	+0.05
Rider Accessories	47.5%	$1,033	4.6	+0.83
Mounts & Cradles	34.3%	$749	4.6	+0.25
Clutches	47.6%	$458	2.2	-0.16
Gloves	34.3%	$413	3.8	+0.50
Filters	39.4%	$370	2.2	+0.56
Rider Protection	35.5%	$352	3.0	+0.32
Pants	32.0%	$317	1.8	-0.06
Fuel Management	33.5%	$288	1.9	+0.34
Jerseys	40.8%	$146	0.9	+0.19
Batteries	30.0%	$122	0.8	+0.02
GPS	30.0%	$109	1.2	-0.14
Security	25.7%	$92	0.5	+0.58
Tires	33.7%	$25	0.2	+0.36

How to handle these: roll them into a single catch-all asset group managed on blended ROAS. Do not set monthly bid modifiers from their curves. Together they are 10.5% of revenue, so a category-by-category calendar for them costs more management time than it can return.

Investigate Before Advertising

Product Type	Wtd Margin	Avg Mo Revenue	Issue
Jackets	-39.4%	$1,404	Negative margin, unverified since Feb 4 2026
Fluids	-56.8%	$676	Negative margin, unverified since Feb 4 2026

Five months open. Jackets and Fluids were flagged on 2026-03-24 and the cost data has still not been checked. Between them they have absorbed ad spend every month since while showing negative gross profit. Verify the Shopify cost fields or pause them - the freeze is not holding.

Monthly Bid Priority Heatmap

Cell = that category's seasonal index for the month, coloured by combined margin x seasonality score. Faded rows are insufficient-data categories, shown for completeness only.

Product Type	Margin	Avg Mo Rev	Conv/mo	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Protection	36.4%	$11,945	54.8	0.98	0.84	1.36	1.25	1.16	1.30	0.92	1.15	0.87	0.83	0.72	0.63
Seat	33.4%	$10,413	37.0	0.64	0.98	1.44	1.00	1.25	1.12	0.96	1.64	1.03	0.68	0.64	0.62
Engine & Maintenance	39.0%	$9,821	52.0	0.51	0.94	1.54	1.52	1.42	1.28	1.20	1.15	0.65	0.75	0.57	0.47
Body	38.3%	$9,002	52.2	0.78	0.65	1.13	1.42	1.70	1.14	1.11	1.22	0.79	0.67	0.61	0.78
Exhaust	44.7%	$7,681	18.7	0.54	0.85	1.34	1.34	1.46	1.05	0.92	1.31	1.30	0.98	0.35	0.57
Bags & Luggage	32.4%	$7,643	28.9	0.65	0.76	1.24	1.41	1.47	1.17	0.91	1.22	0.93	0.72	0.85	0.66
OEM Microfiche	40.1%	$2,658	12.7	0.85	0.63	1.82	1.37	1.27	1.05	1.32	0.98	0.61	0.87	0.46	0.78
Apparel	36.9%	$2,308	20.7	1.49	0.90	1.42	1.01	0.63	0.51	0.44	1.14	0.42	0.92	1.06	2.06
Chain & Sprocket	38.7%	$2,241	11.4	0.83	0.41	1.33	1.25	1.27	0.91	1.01	1.14	1.22	0.86	0.91	0.85
Electrical	34.1%	$1,949	11.7	0.52	0.87	1.37	1.39	1.51	0.88	0.70	1.42	0.73	1.04	0.92	0.65
Footwear unstable	57.4%	$10,903	20.4	0.67	1.85	1.54	1.52	1.20	1.20	0.69	0.84	0.56	0.46	0.70	0.79
Ergonomics unstable	28.1%	$10,009	45.4	0.96	0.82	1.16	1.25	1.19	1.01	1.05	1.03	1.15	0.77	0.84	0.78
Helmets unstable	41.1%	$3,096	11.8	0.82	0.59	0.69	1.00	1.28	0.73	0.59	1.55	0.85	1.50	1.37	1.03
Tools unstable	32.2%	$3,039	14.2	0.79	0.93	1.02	1.09	1.17	0.85	0.88	1.34	1.22	0.61	1.32	0.79
Wheels n/a	28.9%	$2,350	8.3	1.16	1.38	1.96	0.91	0.89	0.23	0.66	1.31	0.95	0.74	1.10	0.70
Brakes n/a	34.6%	$1,488	5.7	0.60	0.24	1.14	2.03	1.13	1.01	1.71	0.94	1.18	0.48	0.93	0.62
Suspension n/a	31.2%	$1,458	5.0	0.48	1.59	1.08	1.62	1.29	0.89	1.20	0.70	0.69	1.19	0.61	0.69
Lighting n/a	27.6%	$1,340	7.2	1.21	1.22	0.85	0.86	1.49	1.20	0.97	1.18	0.71	0.79	0.92	0.59
Rider Accessories n/a	47.5%	$1,033	4.6	0.51	0.67	0.91	0.15	0.54	0.57	0.53	1.04	0.65	0.89	1.75	3.80
Mounts & Cradles n/a	34.3%	$749	4.6	1.04	0.73	1.45	0.74	1.42	0.92	1.22	1.61	0.75	0.94	0.71	0.46
Clutches n/a	47.6%	$458	2.2	1.48	0.53	0.46	1.22	1.36	0.97	0.96	0.65	2.36	0.69	0.45	0.86
Gloves n/a	34.3%	$413	3.8	0.64	0.74	0.96	1.90	1.47	0.56	0.72	0.59	0.90	0.88	1.62	1.01
Filters n/a	39.4%	$370	2.2	0.41	0.68	0.99	1.35	1.85	0.99	1.28	0.72	2.07	0.03	1.17	0.46
Rider Protection n/a	35.5%	$352	3.0	0.32	0.33	1.52	1.13	1.76	1.12	0.56	2.36	1.45	0.66	0.43	0.35
Pants n/a	32.0%	$317	1.8	0.94	0.83	0.47	1.15	1.43	1.18	2.04	1.55	0.99	0.22	1.05	0.14
Fuel Management n/a	33.5%	$288	1.9	1.09	0.58	0.81	0.42	1.25	1.37	1.66	0.79	1.19	1.11	0.45	1.27
Jerseys n/a	40.8%	$146	0.9	1.07	1.27	1.62	1.23	1.55	1.01	0.56	2.99	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.54
Batteries n/a	30.0%	$122	0.8	0.60	1.29	0.96	0.55	0.43	0.20	1.58	0.00	0.75	2.62	1.20	1.82
GPS n/a	30.0%	$109	1.2	0.65	1.76	1.04	0.84	0.80	1.23	0.52	2.08	1.51	0.55	0.70	0.33
Security n/a	25.7%	$92	0.5	0.00	1.06	0.19	1.49	3.17	0.05	0.13	1.19	0.53	0.00	1.03	3.17
Tires n/a	33.7%	$25	0.2	0.00	0.00	4.92	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.46	0.00	0.00	3.67	0.95	0.00

Top 10 Categories by Gross Profit Contribution

Reliable categories ranked by revenue x margin - where the profit actually is, rather than where the biggest seasonal multiples are.

Protection

36.4% margin · Seasonal · peaks Mar (1.4x), Jun (1.3x)

$52,174

Est. GP 12mo

$143,336

Revenue

Conv/mo

Engine & Maintenance

39.0% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks Mar (1.5x), Apr (1.5x)

$45,964

Est. GP 12mo

$117,857

Revenue

Conv/mo

Seat

33.4% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks Aug (1.6x), Mar (1.4x)

$41,734

Est. GP 12mo

$124,952

Revenue

Conv/mo

Body

38.3% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks May (1.7x), Apr (1.4x)

$41,372

Est. GP 12mo

$108,021

Revenue

Conv/mo

Exhaust

44.7% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks May (1.5x), Mar (1.3x)

$41,203

Est. GP 12mo

$92,176

Revenue

Conv/mo

Bags & Luggage

32.4% margin · Seasonal · peaks May (1.5x), Apr (1.4x)

$29,714

Est. GP 12mo

$91,711

Revenue

Conv/mo

OEM Microfiche

40.1% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks Mar (1.8x), Apr (1.4x)

$12,792

Est. GP 12mo

$31,901

Revenue

Conv/mo

Chain & Sprocket

38.7% margin · Seasonal · peaks Mar (1.3x), May (1.3x)

$10,409

Est. GP 12mo

$26,898

Revenue

Conv/mo

Apparel

36.9% margin · Highly Seasonal · peaks Dec (2.1x), Jan (1.5x)

$10,218

Est. GP 12mo

$27,692

Revenue

Conv/mo

Electrical

34.1% margin · Seasonal · peaks May (1.5x), Aug (1.4x)

$7,974

Est. GP 12mo

$23,385

Revenue

Conv/mo

AUGUST 2026

What to Push This Month

PUSH HARD Exhaust (1.31x · 45%m · +16%)

INCREASE Seat (1.64x · 33%m · +9%), Electrical (1.42x · 34%m · +4%), Body (1.22x · 38%m · +3%)

MAINTAIN Engine & Maintenance (1.15x · 39%m · 0%), Chain & Sprocket (1.14x · 39%m · 0%), Protection (1.15x · 36%m · 0%), Apparel (1.14x · 37%m · 0%), Bags & Luggage (1.22x · 32%m · 0%), OEM Microfiche (0.98x · 40%m · 0%)

Both March August pushes are gone. March called Clutches (+124%) and Footwear (+50%). Clutches is now insufficient-data and drops out; Footwear has volume but an unstable curve, and its refreshed August index is 0.84x - below its own average month. August's genuine push is Exhaust (1.31x index, 44.7% margin, +0.57 replication), which March had only at MAINTAIN.

Monthly Bid Calendar

Reliable categories only, ordered by combined score within each action.

Jan

INCREASE:Apparel (1.5x)REDUCE:Protection, OEM Microfiche, Chain & Sprocket, BodyMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Exhaust, Seat, Bags & Luggage, Engine & Maintenance, Electrical

Feb

MAINTAIN:ExhaustREDUCE:Engine & Maintenance, Apparel, Seat, Protection, ElectricalMINIMIZE/PAUSE:OEM Microfiche, Body, Bags & Luggage, Chain & Sprocket

Mar

PUSH HARD:OEM Microfiche (1.8x), Engine & Maintenance (1.5x), Exhaust (1.3x)INCREASE:Apparel (1.4x), Chain & Sprocket (1.3x), Protection (1.4x), Seat (1.4x), Electrical (1.4x)MAINTAIN:Body, Bags & Luggage

Apr

PUSH HARD:Exhaust (1.3x), Engine & Maintenance (1.5x)INCREASE:OEM Microfiche (1.4x), Body (1.4x), Chain & Sprocket (1.2x), Electrical (1.4x)MAINTAIN:Bags & Luggage, ProtectionREDUCE:Apparel, Seat

May

PUSH HARD:Body (1.7x), Exhaust (1.5x)INCREASE:Engine & Maintenance (1.4x), Electrical (1.5x), OEM Microfiche (1.3x), Chain & Sprocket (1.3x), Bags & Luggage (1.5x)MAINTAIN:Protection, SeatMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Apparel

Jun

INCREASE:Engine & Maintenance (1.3x), Protection (1.3x), Exhaust (1.1x)MAINTAIN:Body, OEM Microfiche, Bags & LuggageREDUCE:Seat, Chain & Sprocket, ElectricalMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Apparel

Jul

INCREASE:OEM Microfiche (1.3x), Engine & Maintenance (1.2x)MAINTAIN:Body, Exhaust, Chain & SprocketREDUCE:Protection, Seat, Bags & LuggageMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Electrical, Apparel

Aug NOW

PUSH HARD:Exhaust (1.3x)INCREASE:Seat (1.6x), Electrical (1.4x), Body (1.2x)MAINTAIN:Engine & Maintenance, Chain & Sprocket, Protection, Apparel, Bags & Luggage, OEM Microfiche

Sep

INCREASE:Exhaust (1.3x), Chain & Sprocket (1.2x)REDUCE:Seat, Protection, Body, Bags & LuggageMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Engine & Maintenance, Electrical, OEM Microfiche, Apparel

Oct

MAINTAIN:ExhaustREDUCE:Electrical, OEM Microfiche, Apparel, Chain & Sprocket, ProtectionMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Engine & Maintenance, Body, Bags & Luggage, Seat

Nov

MAINTAIN:ApparelREDUCE:Chain & Sprocket, ElectricalMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Bags & Luggage, Protection, Body, Engine & Maintenance, Seat, OEM Microfiche, Exhaust

Dec

PUSH HARD:Apparel (2.1x)REDUCE:Chain & Sprocket, OEM Microfiche, BodyMINIMIZE/PAUSE:Exhaust, Protection, Electrical, Bags & Luggage, Seat, Engine & Maintenance

Implementation Guide

PMax / Shopping structure

Separate asset groups for Stars, Opportunistic and Question Marks
One catch-all group for all 17 insufficient-data categories, managed on blended ROAS
Jackets and Fluids excluded until cost data is verified

Target ROAS by margin tier

HIGH margin (40%+): 300-400% ROAS
MEDIUM margin (30-40%): 400-600% ROAS
LOW margin (under 30%): 600%+ ROAS or pause

Product feed custom labels

Label 0: Margin tier (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / INVESTIGATE)
Label 1: Season type (STEADY / SEASONAL / HIGHLY_SEASONAL / INSUFFICIENT_DATA)
Label 2: Current month action
Label 3: Product type

Refresh next

Margins are the oldest input (Feb 4, 2026) - pull a fresh ShipHero Sales by SKU + Shopify export
Re-verify Jackets and Fluids cost data first
Seasonality is good until roughly Feb 2027